Tuesday, May 13, 2025
Retirement Concerns on Aging
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Physician Shortage Predicted by 2034
A recent study from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) warns of a significant physician shortage in the United States by 2034. The country is expected to be short by as many as 124,000 doctors, with deficits spanning both primary care and various specialties. Estimates suggest primary care could lack between 17,800 and 48,000 physicians, while non-primary care specialties may see shortages ranging from 21,000 to 77,100 doctors, including substantial gaps in surgical and medical specialties[2][5].
Drivers of Demand
The main reasons behind the projected shortfall include continued population growth and the aging population. By 2034, the U.S. population is projected to increase by more than 10 percent, with a significant portion being people over the age of 65. This demographic shift will place greater demands on healthcare services at a time when the physician workforce is not keeping pace[3][5].
The Role of Graduate Medical Education
The AAMC emphasizes that increasing the number of graduate medical education (GME) slots is a key solution to address the looming physician gap. Expanding GME capacity would help train more new doctors, ensuring the nation can meet the rising healthcare needs of its population[1][2].
Without increased investment and changes in medical training capacity, the U.S. will likely face serious challenges in providing adequate healthcare access over the next decade.
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